From Stalemate to Stability: Analyzing Ceasefire Opportunities in the Russia-Ukraine War through Ripeness, Conflict Transformation, Incremental Ceasefire Approach

Abstract

This article examines ceasefire opportunities in the Russia-Ukraine War, a protracted and multifaceted conflict since Russia's February 24, 2022, invasion. Its objectives are to 1) to outline three important frameworks i.e. Ripeness, Conflict Transformation, and Incremental Ceasefire for peace and conflict resolution. 2) to implement those frameworks in the present Russia-Ukraine crisis, and 3) to suggest future prospects and policies for conflict resolution. The methodology of this qualitative documentary study involves descriptive documentary analysis, utilizing primary and secondary sources. The methodology of this qualitative documentary study involves descriptive documentary analysis, utilizing primary and secondary sources.

Leveraging interdisciplinary literature and historical analogs (e.g., Arab-Israeli conflicts, Good Friday Agreement), this study employs these conceptual models (Ripeness Theory, Conflict Transformation, and Incremental Ceasefire approach) to offer complementary insights into de-escalation possibilities in a conflict marked by deep animosities and competing national narratives.

Key results indicate: 1) The conflict has not reached a comprehensive mutually hurting stalemate (MHS), and while narrow de-escalation opportunities exist, a clear 'Way Out' remains constrained by entrenched positions; 2) Effective conflict transformation demands addressing profound relational and structural injustices, currently overshadowed by immediate military and political objectives; and 3) An incremental ceasefire approach, focusing on localized and confidence-building measures, presents the most viable de-escalation pathway, despite inherent implementation challenges. The analysis seeks to provide policymakers, scholars, and practitioners with a nuanced foundation for diagnosing the conflict’s intractability and identifying viable pathways toward stabilization and resolution.