The 2025 Thai-Cambodian Conflict Viewed Through Glasl’s Nine-Stage Conflict Escalation Model

Abstract

This study examines the 2025 Thai-Cambodian border conflict through the lens of Friedrich Glasl’s Nine-Stage Conflict Escalation Model, analyzing its progression from simmering tensions to intense military engagement. Triggered by disputes over the Ta Muan Thom temple and escalating into widespread clashes along the Thai-Cambodian border from July 24 to July 28, 2025, the conflict resulted in over 30 deaths and significant civilian displacement. By mapping the conflict’s timeline onto Glasl’s model, this paper identifies its evolution through rational, emotional, and fighting phases, culminating in a fragile ASEAN-brokered ceasefire on August 7, 2025. The analysis highlights the model’s utility in dissecting the dynamics of interstate military conflicts, while also revealing its limitations in capturing historical, geopolitical, and socio-economic factors unique to nation-to-nation disputes. The findings underscore the need for nuanced conflict resolution strategies that address underlying territorial and political grievances to prevent future escalations.