DYNAMICS OF SOCIAL SECURITY BUDGET BURDEN AND ELDERLY LABOR SITUATION IN NONTHABURI PROVINCE: A DECADE REVIEW (2015-2024)

Abstract

This research aims to 1) study the development and structural changes of the Social Security Fund's budget burden in Nonthaburi Province over a decade; 2) analyze the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on employment stability; and 3) assess the trajectory of old-age benefit expenses within the context of an aging society. This is a quantitative research analyzing time-series data and a trend forecasting model from 10 Nonthaburi Provincial Labor Situation Reports (2015-2024), covering over 770,000 insured persons. The findings reveal three significant structural changes: 1) The Aging Budget Trap: The fund's expenditure structure has completely transitioned from health-related burdens to old-age provisions. In 2024, old-age benefit payments soared to 454.88 million THB, accounting for 56.97 percent of total benefit payments, which is significantly higher than child allowance and sickness benefits. 2) Economic Scarring from the Crisis: The COVID-19 crisis resulted in a surge of unemployment benefit disbursements during 2020-2021 and left long-term impacts on small enterprises (1-9 employees). In 2024, this group still had a high layoff proportion, reaching 95.04 percent of all closed businesses. and
3) Private Sector Dependency Structure: 85.88 percent of insured persons continuously chose to use private healthcare facilities, reflecting latent administrative costs. Policy recommendations focus on fiscal sustainability reform through voluntary retirement age extensions, adjusting contribution ceilings to align with economic conditions, and establishing an early warning system for small enterprises to reduce the unemployment burden, in order to sustainably maintain fiscal balance.