Thailand’s Military Posture under China–U.S. Strategic Competition: An Analysis through Engagement Theory and the Hedging Strategy Framework Thailand’s Military Posture under China–U.S. Strategic Competition: An Analysis through Engagement Theory and the Hedging Strategy Framework
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Abstract
This article aims to analyze Thailand’s military posture under the strategic competition between China and the United States by linking the Thailand–Cambodia conflict with the role of the Thai military as an instrument of state security. The study employs a qualitative research approach through documentary analysis of academic literature, security policy documents, and studies related to Thailand’s military relations with China and the United States. The analysis is guided by Linkage Theory to explain the connections among factors at multiple levels, including the structure of the international political system, the regional level, and the national level. This framework is combined with the concept of Hedging Strategy to explain the policy behavior of middle powers under the pressures of great-power competition. The findings indicate that Thailand’s military posture is not merely a response to structural competition between China and the United States but is shaped by the interaction between systemic pressures and regional security dynamics, particularly the Thailand–Cambodia conflict, which serves as an important linkage factor in determining Thailand’s security priorities. Thailand’s behavior reflects a hedging strategy through maintaining flexible military relations with both China and the United States without entering into rigid alliance commitments. In policy terms, the article proposes that Thailand should pursue active neutrality and utilize the military as a mechanism for strategic risk management through three policy directions: (1) developing domestic defense industries to reduce dependence on foreign arms procurement and enhance Thailand’s long-term strategic autonomy; (2) promoting multilateral security cooperation through regional frameworks; and (3) strengthening strategic intelligence systems and threat assessment capabilities in order to monitor the dynamics of great-power competition and adjust national security policies accordingly. These approaches, together with the adoption of a multi-level security policy framework, are consistent with Thailand’s status as a middle power and help preserve strategic flexibility amid the uncertainties of great-power competition.
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